PressBox: Spring Spotlight: Who Will Be The Orioles' Fifth Starter?

Spring Spotlight: Who Will Be The Orioles' Fifth Starter?

Right now, the Orioles seem to have four pitchers who are essentially locked in to the Opening Day starting rotation, barring injuries: Jason Hammel, Wei-Yin Chen, Chris Tillman and Miguel Gonzalez. But the fifth starter's spot remains up for grabs, and it's sure to be hotly contested this spring. With Grapefruit League games set to begin on Feb. 23, a smorgasbord of Orioles pitchers will get a chance to make an impression on manager Buck Showalter. Which pitcher has the best chance to stake his claim on the final rotation spot? Let's weigh the odds.

Zach Britton: 40 percent
Britton is the early favorite to emerge victorious from the fifth-starter battle. It was two years ago that Britton, who had never appeared in the majors, dazzled the Orioles with a remarkable spring training and cracked the Opening Day rotation. Last year, on the other hand, was a lost season for the left-hander, who suffered a shoulder impingement during the spring, which affected him physically and mentally for the entire season. Early reports from this year's camp indicate that Britton is back healthy and throwing great, and he indicated at FanFest that he had overcome the issues that plagued him in 2012. A 25-year-old, Britton still has a high ceiling, and the Orioles would love to see him deliver a breakout season.

Jake Arrieta: 15 percent
Speaking of pitchers who need a bounceback season, Arrieta too is hoping to atone for a dreadful 2012 campaign. Arrieta, 26, was given the honor of starting on Opening Day last season, but there was little good news after that. Arrieta ended up going 3-9 with a 6.20 ERA during 18 starts and was demoted to Triple-A Norfolk for part of the season. Still, the Orioles like his potential -- they reportedly declined to part with him when potential trade partners brought up his name last year -- and with a little more focus and better command, Arrieta could parlay a strong spring into another major league starting job.

Steve Johnson: 15 percent
Of all the Orioles' feel-good stories in 2012, Johnson's was one of the best: a local kid, and son of a former Oriole, who provided a valuable contribution as a rookie by posting a 2.11 ERA in 12 games (including four starts). He'll get every opportunity to win a job this spring. What works against him, though, is the fact that his minor league career is less than distinguished; he has a 50-52 career minor-league record and 4.17 ERA, hardly numbers that suggest future big league success. Still, he silenced the critics in a small sample size last year. Can he do it again?

Jair Jurrjens: 10 percent
A few weeks ago, Jurrjens might have been the odds-on favorite to win the job, considering his ample major league experience (125 starts) and past success (a 2011 All-Star for Atlanta). But the Orioles apparently saw something in his physical exam that scared them mightily, to the point that they downgraded his initial $1.5 million deal into a non-guaranteed minor-league contract. At this point, it’s likely that Jurrjens begins the year in the minors until he proves he's healthy and effective.

Brian Matusz: 10 percent
Matusz, once considered a future ace, flamed out of the rotation the last two years, but enjoyed a renaissance late in 2012 after being converted to a reliever. The question is, can he carry his late-season success back into a starting role in 2013, or is he simply more suited for shorter stints out of the bullpen? The bet here is that Matusz will ultimately return to a relief role, but the O's will give him a shot to start during the spring.

T.J. McFarland: 5 percent
A Rule 5 pick from the Indians, McFarland must stay on the Orioles' roster all season or be offered back to Cleveland. The O's like the ground-ball tendencies and durability of McFarland, a 23-year-old southpaw, but it's tough to set aside a roster spot all season for a player with no major league experience, especially for a team that hopes to contend. If McFarland does make the team, he's more likely to be stashed in the bullpen than given a starting spot.

Tommy Hunter: 1 percent
Hunter made 20 starts for the Orioles last year but was overexposed in that role. He was a better pitcher when working out of the bullpen, which gave him a chance to let loose and crank up his velocity in short stints. Hunter probably has a bullpen job sewn up, but it's unlikely the O's will put him back in the rotation unless they're hit hard by injuries.

Zach Clark: 1 percent
The minor league lifer put himself on the Orioles' radar screen -- and on their 40-man roster -- with an excellent 2012 season, posting a 2.79 ERA during 28 games for Double-A Bowie and Triple-A Norfolk. Clark may well see time in the majors this year, but he's unlikely to win a job in spring competing against other hurlers who have more big league experience and upside.

Todd Redmond: 1 percent
Redmond is in a similar boat as Clark, except that he's new to the Orioles organization. Another minor league veteran, Redmond has started 200 minor league games, but just one in the majors. A 27-year-old right-hander, Redmond is likely ticketed for Norfolk.

Dylan Bundy: 1 percent
I just had to throw in this possibility. Orioles fans would be excited if Bundy, the top pitching prospect in all of baseball, made the team out of camp. But by all accounts, the Orioles are planning to play it safe with the young right-hander and let him start the year in the minors for a little more seasoning. Don't be surprised if he's in the majors -- for good -- by midseason.

Other: 1 percent
Even with plenty of candidates already on hand, there's a slight chance that the fifth starter will be someone not named above -- perhaps a late-spring free-agent signing (Kyle Lohse?), a trade acquisition or an out-of-nowhere surprise. After all, it's a long way until the season begins on April 2. You never know what might happen in the meantime.

Posted Feb. 21, 2013 by Paul Folkemer