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Do Preseason Games Foretell Regular-Season Results?

NOTEBOOK: PRACTICE REPORT; "KO" GETTING NEEDED REPS

By Joe Platania

OWINGS MILLS -- Most of the time, a team's preseason record does not serve as an indicator of how it will do in the fall. The examples are well-documented.

The 2008 Detroit Lions lost all 16 regular-season games, but won all four preseason contests. The 2007 New England Patriots won all 16 games, but only after a 2-2 preseason.

One of the most celebrated teams of all, the unbeaten 1972 Miami Dolphins, was a mediocre team if you go by its 3-3 preseason mark. That record included a loss to the Washington Redskins, who later lost to the Dolphins during Super Bowl VII.

But during the Ravens' short history, their August marks have, in most cases, been a harbinger of either feast or famine.

In 1997, the team's second year of existence, Baltimore lost all four preseason games and went on to post a 6-9-1 mark. Three years later, a 4-0 August mark was the prelude to a Super Bowl championship season.

But perhaps the most glaring example of this phenomenon came in 2007. The Ravens had a three-game preseason losing streak; during the regular season, the team set a club record with a nine-game skid.

The Ravens are 39-26 in their all-time preseason history, and it's no coincidence that they have reached the playoffs during eight of the last 12 seasons.

This time around, the team that has the NFL's only current four-year postseason streak has gotten off to a 1-1 start that's even more perplexing that the record would make it seem.

Against Atlanta, the first-string units on both sides of the ball played poorly, while the second- and third-string squads helped key a 24-0 run and a 31-17 victory.

Last Thursday at home against the Detroit Lions, the first team played much better while the backups did not, and it resulted in a 27-12 loss.

So, what kind of team is the 2012 Baltimore Ravens? Is it another playoff-bound outfit, or could it be one of the NFL's also-rans for the first time in five years?

"You can never predict it, that's the thing," head coach John Harbaugh said. "We'd like to be doing everything great, but you're not going to peak really early, and it's August. We've got a long season in front of us.

"I think we're growing in some areas, but we’re not doing everything we’re going to do, but neither are the guys on the other side. I think seeing guys kind of gel a little bit, develop what they are doing individually."

As strange as it may seem for a Baltimore-based club, a lot of the concern rests on defense.

Last year's Ravens posted 48 quarterback sacks, an increase of 21 compared with the previous season and the second-best number in team history (60 in 2006).

But through two games this August, they are averaging just one per game, with little to no pressure being put on starters Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford. For now, Terrell Suggs' absence is being felt as edge rushers Paul Kruger and Courtney Upshaw are entrusted with the responsibility of picking up the slack.

Upshaw is still recovering from some nagging injuries and trying to get accustomed to simply being on the field, which he was for the first time against Detroit. But a key call against him contributed to a Lions touchdown drive.

"I got called for lining up offsides," Upshaw said. "It's just being disciplined. The ball is there. I am just looking at the ball, and it cost [us] seven points. I feel bad about it, because we were third-and-short, and I know they batted the ball down, but there was a penalty on me.

"I guess it's just being disciplined. I am sure coach is going to talk about that with me when we get back to it, and it's something I'm going to take to practice."

Kruger had three years of practice and observation before being thrust into the spotlight this year because of Suggs' Achilles tendon surgery.

Kruger, who played at Utah in college, has made occasional plays in spot duty -- such as his third-down near-interception in front of the Lions' bench on Thursday -- but it's up to him to make them more consistently.

"I think we played well," Kruger said. "There were a couple of big plays we gave up early on that I think we want to avoid. All in all, I think we played well. Like I said, I think there are some things we can clean up, but overall I think we played solid."

Offensively, the Ravens have averaged almost 31 minutes of possession time per game and have averaged 21.5 points per contest, down less than two points from last year's regular-season average.

But the team has converted only eight of 32 third-down plays (25 percent) and has just five field goals against four touchdowns during two games.

"[In the red zone], the 'ones' haven't fared well," Harbaugh said. "They haven't scored touchdowns. We obviously have to do better than that."

To compound matters, backup quarterback Tyrod Taylor is the team's leading rusher with 111 yards, which is not an optimum situation.

"You go into these games, and you kind of have a little bit you want to work on, and you won't go out there and run everything," quarterback Joe Flacco said. "You have such a small amount of plays to actually draw from and see how well you played. ...

"That’s why when you do get those two chances, that’s why it's all about finishing off, finishing off, and the biggest thing with that is if we're going to be the offense that we want to be, in order to put up 30-some points every week, you have to score touchdowns. You don't want to get in the business of just not converting and kicking."

For now, the Ravens are not taking advantage of their opportunities.

That tendency has left them with a record that would indicate a team in transition, indeed, a team in limbo. After coming so close to paydirt last winter, it would be a disturbing way to begin the fall.

***

JOEY P'S TRIVIA TIME: Today's question:

The Ravens, like most teams, try to avoid playing preseason games against teams that are already on that same year's regular-season schedule.

It's especially true when it comes to taking on AFC squads, because Baltimore would likely be battling them for wild-card spots and playoff seedings.

When was the last time the Ravens played a preseason game against an AFC team they would be meeting that same year during the regular campaign?

The answer will be revealed at the bottom of this entry.

***

INFIRMARY: The Ravens practiced outdoors on a sunny, cooler day as their sessions resumed at the Under Armour Performance Center following Sunday's stadium-style practice at Stevenson University.

About 3,000 fans were reportedly in attendance at Stevenson, short of a complete sellout, but with enough children seeking autographs to form a two-deep line the length of the field on the sideline opposite the main grandstand.

But with camp mode over and no fans at the UAPC, the team could simply concentrate on its preparations for Thursday's third preseason game against Jacksonville (see "Foe Front," below).

The padded practice ended about 20 minutes early, which had to make the team's walking wounded feel better. Fortunately, there aren't as many of them these days.

Wideout LaQuan Williams and fullback Vonta Leach both injured their ankles during the Detroit loss, but have practiced the last two days. Cornerback Danny Gorrer was limping after one repetition midway through practice, but it didn't stop him from participating.

Safety Sean Considine and linebacker Sergio Kindle continued to wear the red-mesh no-contact jerseys as a precaution.

Not practicing were linebacker Josh Bynes (cracked vertebrae, 14 straight sessions missed), tackle/guard Jah Reid (calf, two), tight ends Dennis Pitta (broken hand) and Ed Dickson (sprained shoulder), defensive tackle Ryan McBean (broken ankle) and defensive end Pernell McPhee (family reasons).

Also, wideout David Reed (ACL surgery) remained on the Physically Unable To Perform list, the last of four players placed on that sheet when training camp began.

Linebacker Terrell Suggs (Achilles tendon surgery) is still on the Reserve/Non-Football Injury sheet, expected to miss at least half the season after incurring his injury in late April.

***

PRACTICE REPORT: A few highlights from Monday afternoon's session:

- There were no fights at practice, but two situations looked as if they could become explosive. Right tackle Michael Oher got in an extra shove at linebacker Chavis Williams, who looked back at him for a brief second. Guard Justin Boren and defensive lineman Arthur Jones also had a tense moment.

- Billy Bajema, the former St. Louis and San Francisco tight end who looks to be ahead in the race for a third tight-end slot, bulldozed Williams on a block before flaring out and catching a pass. Fullback Vonta Leach also laid a crunching block on linebacker Stevie Baggs.

- Linebacker Dannell Ellerbe impressively rushed past left tackle Bryant McKinnie -- who was back with the first team -- on successive plays, but the pass had been thrown before Ellerbe could arrive in the pocket.

- Running back Anthony Allen, perhaps sensing some lost momentum in the battle for the No. 2 job, decisively finished each run into the end zone. "Things are getting tense," Harbaugh said with the first cut deadline one week away.

- Tandon Doss made several nice catches, including a pair by the sidelines, while Jacoby Jones and Jimmy Smith found themselves opposite each other for a day-long battle that ended basically in a draw.

- During the 7-on-7 period, receivers had trouble holding on to the ball, with some of the problem being the tight coverage the defense provided. Yet, tight end Bruce Figgins and wideout Dorian Graham dropped passes, while cornerbacks Chykie Brown tipped another pass away. Also, Corey Graham stripped Davon Drew of a catch and playmaking safety Omar Brown intercepted a well-overthrown ball.

- It was yet another spirited day in the kicking battle -- players from all position groups were noisily clamoring for the kickers to miss -- as Billy Cundiff made all six kicks and Justin Tucker was 5-for-6, missing wide right from 61 yards. Cundiff was good from that distance, but had a 52-yarder blocked when Lardarius Webb jumped offsides and swatted it down. Earlier, Ed Reed and Bernard Pollard also attempted field goals, with Reed getting the better of that "battle."

- New to the music playlist was plenty of Marvin Gaye (both solo and with Tammi Terrell); Aerosmith; the Rolling Stones; Sammy Hagar; Queen; and the Baha Men's "Who Let The Dogs Out," which got defensive tackle Haloti Ngata dancing in between plays.

***

OSEMELE ASSIMILATING: Second-round pick and rookie offensive tackle Kelechi Osemele has seen practice time at left guard, right guard and right tackle.

But it's at the latter position that Osemele, the 6-foot-5, 335-pounder from Iowa State, has earned most of his repetitions, including last Thursday's game against the Lions.

If he continues to play there, it would create a chain reaction that would slide Michael Oher over to the left side and put veteran left tackle Bryant McKinnie on the bench.

On the other hand, a left-guard assignment could push penciled-in starter Bobbie Williams to the second unit.

“It’s been fun playing both sides," Osemele said. "I'm just trying to give the guys a look, get some experience at both right tackle and left guard, and just gain some experience and get better every play."

Osemele has been getting so many plays, in fact, that he has played during the second half of both preseason games, getting valuable repetitions and conditioning work that can only help him as the season wears on.

"Oh, yeah, definitely it's good for football shape," Osemele said. "It's good for the extra plays and the experience. [I'm] getting better at every play, getting my body ready to play four quarters and stuff like that, so that's been good for me.

"I'm a young guy, so they're just trying to add me in there and be physical for as many plays as they can so I'm ready."

Harbaugh said he liked what he had seen of Osemele.

"He's a talented young rookie," the coach said. "He's tough and he has a good punch and really good feet, maybe better than some people thought."

***

QUOTE OF THE DAY I: Running back Ray Rice usually has a lot of fun ribbing teammates while standing on the sidelines. Monday, he aimed his barbs at a decidedly underweight member of the media.

"You look like an X-ray, man," Rice said. "If something was ever wrong with you, the doctor would know right away."

***

QUOTE OF THE DAY II: Because the Ravens have had only three head coaches in their history, it's rare when one of them comments on another.

But that's what Fox booth analyst Brian Billick did when asked about John Harbaugh recently. His answer contained a hint of the arrogance for which he was known:

"John has been brilliant," Billick said. "Part of it is because he came into a team that was -- I don't want to sound self-serving -- pretty good, and a good, sound organization."

***

JOEY P'S TRIVIA TIME ANSWER: Here's the question we asked earlier in this entry:

The Ravens, like most teams, try to avoid playing preseason games against teams that are already on that same year's regular-season schedule.

It's especially true when it comes to taking on AFC squads, because Baltimore would likely be battling them for wild-card spots and playoff seedings.

When was the last time the Ravens played a preseason game against an AFC team they would be meeting that same year during the regular campaign?

ANSWER:

Naturally, this sort of thing has happened more with NFC teams, because the Ravens don't play them as much.

In 2010, the Ravens beat the Carolina Panthers both during the preseason and during the regular campaign. The latter was a 37-13 blowout in Charlotte.

Six years earlier, the Ravens played two preseason games against teams they would meet later during the fall. In both cases, Baltimore lost to the Philadelphia Eagles and beat the New York Giants.

But you would have to go all the way back to the Ravens' Super Bowl season of 2000 to find the last time they played an AFC team during the preseason that they would meet during the regular season.

On Aug. 12, the Ravens played host to the New York Jets at what is now M&T Bank Stadium and won a 10-0 snoozer. When the teams met again on the same field on Christmas Eve, former Ravens quarterback and Jets starter Vinny Testaverde set opponent records that still stand, completing 36 of 69 passes for 481 yards during a 34-20 loss.

Posted Aug. 20, 2012




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Comments:
The offensive and defensive concerns for the Ravens are very real.

The team has emphasized speed and agility in recent years with the offense. That doesn't translate well when 22 players are all condensed. The Ravens need a toughness element. It might not have been popular but maybe they should have considered a player like Plaxico.

Without Suggs, the secondary may need to hang with their coverage longer than in the recent past and may look comparatively inadequate.

Instead of seeing someone stepping up in some department, I see injury reports where they are not needed.

If I HAD to predict now by what I have so far seen, that 1-1 preseason record would translate to an 8-8 for me.
Posted by: Mr Bad Example @ 12:45 PM on 8.23.2012    [Add Your Comment]    [report abuse]

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