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Who's Next Winner in Talent Search?
By Pete Kerzel
If the Orioles have decided whether to spend the fourth overall pick in this week's first-year player draft on a hitter or a pitcher, they’re keeping mum on their preference.
“Whatever happens, no matter which way it goes, we’re going to get a good player at No. 4. That’s what really matters. … It’s a great time because you get to add talent to your organization,” said Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail. “We think it’s particularly important to us because we want to establish an identity as being an organization that does a good job identifying and developing young talent.”
Baltimore has experienced a mixed bag in terms of successes with first-round choices in recent years. Catcher Jayson Werth (1997), outfielders Darnell McDonald (1997), Larry Bigbie (1999), and Keith Reed (1999) and infielder Mike Fontenot (2001) all reached the majors, but only Werth and Fontenot are still there -- the former on the disabled list with the Phillies and the latter with the Cubs.
Busts like Alvie Sheppard (1995), Beau Hale (2000) and Michael Paradis (1999) became poster children for draft ineptitude.
Things started turning more positive in 2002, when the Orioles made left-hander Adam Loewen the fourth overall pick. The following year brought outfielder Nick Markakis, the seventh overall selection. The team took right-hander Wade Townsend in the first round in 2004, but couldn’t sign him. Since then, the Orioles’ farm system has been bolstered -- and fans’ expectations raised -- with the first-round selections of catcher Brandon Snyder in 2005, third baseman Billy Rowell in 2006 and catcher Matt Wieters in 2007.
Director of scouting Joe Jordan and his staff were no doubt hunkered down in their war room as the draft approached, working through multiple scenarios about how the first quartet of picks will shake out and slotting players in preferential order for selections in later rounds.
“I think we try to get the player we think is going to have the most productive career. We certainly don’t draft for need,” MacPhail added.
So what are the Orioles most likely to do?
Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh hold the first two slots in the draft, and conventional wisdom has catcher Buster Posey out of Florida and Vanderbilt third baseman Pedro Alvarez going first and second, though the order is unclear. What Kansas City does at No. 3 will impact the Orioles, perhaps helping them decide between a pitching prospect and a field player.
The Royals covet shortstop Tim Beckham, but he plays the same position as last year’s Kansas City first-rounder, Mike Moustakas. Or, the Royals could opt for left-hander Brian Matusz out of San Diego, leaving the Orioles to decide between Beckham and South Carolina first baseman Justin Smoak.
Longer shots -- but still first-rounders -- include Riverside, Calif., high school catcher Kyle Skipworth, Georgia shortstop Gordon Beckham, Plantation, Fla., high school first baseman Eric Hosmer, Missouri right-hander Aaron Crow and Tulane right-hander Shooter Hunt.
Tim Beckham is a 6-foot-2, 191-pound prospect who has been favorably compared to former Reds all-star Barry Larkin and current Rays’ shortstop-turned-center fielder B.J. Upton. He’s a contact hitter with the potential to develop an extra-base stroke that could project him as the No. 2 spot in the batting order.
At 6-foot-4 and 193 pounds, Matusz possesses four decent pitches -- a downward-moving fastball that tops out at 95 mph, an above-average changeup, a passable slider and a devastating curve that’s his out pitch. He’s considered the top pitcher in the draft and his arsenal is ample enough to outweigh minor concerns about his velocity.
Smoak is a 6-foot-4, 215-pound switch hitter who boasts power from both sides of the plate, making him an interesting fallback option should the Royals go for Matusz. But because of his size, sub-par arm and lack of speed, Smoak is destined to be either a first baseman or designated hitter.
While fans focus on the first round, MacPhail knows that successful teams stockpile potential in succeeding rounds.
“It takes years to know for certain, but definitely that can be where it’s done,” MacPhail said. “The way drafts are evaluated today, a lot will be determined on how your first-rounder does, but a lot of times the real finds can be later.”
Minnesota nabbed two future 20-game winners, left-hander Denny Nagle, who prepped at Arundel High School in Gambrills, in the third round (85th) and Oriole-to-be right-hander Scott Erickson in the fourth (111th). Another Rookie of the Year (and future Oriole) came in the 10th round, when the Twins grabbed outfielder Marty Cordova (267th). Reliever Mike Trombley (14th round, 371st) and utility man Denny Hocking (52nd round, 1,311th) also had long major league careers.
Whatever picks the Orioles make this week, however, will impact the future and set the stage for the rebuilding team’s next chapter.
“Philosophically, we’re conservative,” MacPhail said. “I don’t think we’d want to be pushing anybody to [the majors] before we think they’re ready for it. How fast they get there isn’t as big a part of the equation as how long they’re going to stay there.”
Issue 3.23: June 4, 2008 |
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