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Health Influenced Orioles' Choice
By Jim Henneman
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Andy MacPhail
(Mitch Stringer/PressBox) |
As we already know, the Orioles are not exactly following a foolproof blueprint for success as they try to stockpile weapons in the arms race. At best, the amateur free-agent draft is an inexact science that primarily deals with projections than don't include what is often the most critical factor -- injuries.
Make no mistake about it, health concerns played a vital role in the Orioles' selection of Oklahoma high school pitching phenom Dylan Bundy -- even though just about the only thing more fragile than a teenager's arm is his mind. In this particular case, O's scouting director Joe Jordan is confident there are no fears about Bundy in either area, though he would be the first to admit nobody can guarantee perfect health when it comes to throwing a baseball faster than 90 miles per hour.
The policy of "grow the arms, buy (or trade for) the bats" philosophy espoused by Andy MacPhail was never more evident than it was in this draft. The Orioles' most obvious need is for someone who can make a difference with a bat in his hands. In this particular draft that person was Anthony Rendon, who happens to be a somewhat damaged third baseman from Rice, who hit 46 home runs his first two years in college -- but only six this year.
This time a year ago, the O's were almost runaway leaders in what was considered the "Rendon Sweepstakes" -- the dubious race for the first pick in the draft that goes to the team with the worst record in baseball. The team's resurgence under Buck Showalter the last two months of the season moved the O's back to the fourth spot, seemingly out of the Rendon hunt. An ankle injury did not damage his value, any more than it did to Mark Teixeira years earlier, but a shoulder injury that most likely will require surgery delegated the erstwhile slugger to a designated hitter role, raising a red flag that caused five teams, including the Orioles, to pass on the risk.
They may have picked a Sooner, but if Rendon proves to be physically fit, then the O's almost certainly settled for later when it comes to player development. A healthy Rendon figures to be in the big leagues no later than the end of 2012, whereas Bundy, even on the fast track everyone predicts, will be at least another year, and most likely two, away from the big leagues.
Having Rendon available when their turn came might have been the Orioles' worst nightmare, given the sad state of offense around here. But, having seen at least a partial medical report, Jordan felt he couldn't take the risk with such a valuable position in the draft.
What this draft means is that somewhere down the road, the Orioles will use one of their young pitchers -- Brian Matusz, Zach Britton, Dan Klein or possibly even Bundy or his brother Bob, currently pitching at Class-A Frederick -- to obtain a front-line blue-chip young player who could fit in as one of the cornerstones of the franchise.
It's even possible that Jeremy Guthrie, a young 32 in baseball terminology because he has logged less than 1,000 innings in the big leagues, could fit into that category later this year -- if enough teams are willing to appraise him on his earned run average rather than a won-loss record that is seriously diluted because of the Orioles' inability to score runs.
There really isn't much of an alternative, even with rapid advancement of some of the position players currently playing at the Class-A level, who are still at least two years away.
It's hardly an overnight project, but inasmuch as this is his third full year it is still too early to categorize MacPhail's plan as a failure, as many think. Gradually, the arms seem to be getting into place -- but trading for, rather than buying, looms as the best chance the O's have when it comes to finding the bats. Regardless of the temptation, except for only rare exceptions (Teixeira being one failed example), the Orioles are not in position to surrender draft choices for free agents who may look attractive but are less than premier.
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The most impressive statistic on Dylan Bundy is he issued as many walks in one season, five, as a lot of guys do in one game. All of which leads to one of two conclusions -- that high schoolers in Oklahoma swing at more pitches outside the strike zone than anywhere else, or, given the fascination with patience at the plate, those five hitters should have been on everybody's draft board.
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While on the subject of PPA (pitches per appearance), does anybody else wonder why, if that number is so relevant, the player who sees the most among the Orioles (Mark Reynolds) has the lowest batting average, and the one who sees the least (Vladimir Guerrero) has the second highest BA? Just wondering.
Jim Henneman can be reached at JimH@pressboxonline.com.
Posted June 7, 2011 |
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