Midseason Musings About Orioles

By Jim Henneman

Random remarks and idle thoughts while trying to assess whether the Orioles get good marks for reaching the mid-point of the season with a winning record or poor grades for the way they have been stumbling into the All-Star break:

Putting infielders in the outfield is not a recommended recipe for success. It's hard to imagine a team playing as many games with only one legitimate outfielder in the lineup as the Orioles have this year. They got away with it occasionally, but as anybody that has followed the game for any length of time can attest -- eventually the ball will find those least likely to catch it.

Going into the season, the master plan was for Mark Reynolds to play third, Chris Davis first and Wilson Betemit to serve as the primary designated hitter against right-handed pitching. I don't have the exact number, but I'm guessing you could count on two hands the number of games with that alignment. It would also take as many hands to count the number of players that have manned each of the corner outfield positions.

You suspect that manager Buck Showalter knew from the outset that defense would not be this team's strong suit, but not even he could have guessed how much he'd have to mix and match this lineup. Let's just say that the Orioles have regularly fielded a lineup that included more than one player ideally suited to be the designated hitter. Injuries, particularly the ones to left fielder Nolan Reimold and right fielder Nick Markakis, have been a major factor, but they aren't totally to blame for the recent meltdown.

The O's already led the American League in the category of first baseman- and designated hitter-type players before they acquired Jim Thome from the Philadelphia Phillies in an attempt to spruce up an offense that had lost power faster than the metro area did last weekend. Now, with one of the game's premier home-run hitters on board, some of the DH candidates are going to lose at bats.

If that's not enough, with Brian Roberts back on the disabled list, the defense suffers even more, and there are serious concerns about what the second baseman might be able to contribute the rest of the way. As much as he proved to be invaluable in a utility role, Robert Andino has struggled defensively at times, particularly turning the double-play at second base.

At the very least, the lineup figures to be a struggle for Showalter, who can only hope that Markakis' return solidifies one of the corner outfield spots -- as well as the No. 3 hole in the lineup. The mixing and matching will only get tougher during the second half of the season.

***

In the meantime, Showalter's starting rotation, which started the season as a strength, has become as disjointed as the lineup. Jason Hammel and Wei-Yin Chen have provided a sense of stability, but finding quality starters for the other three spots has proven to be even tougher than getting quality starts from those in contention. Eventually the bullpen, which has been the saving force to this point (and when was the last time you heard that?) will wear down. Needing 10-12 outs from relief pitchers every game is no more a recipe for success than infielders in the outfield.

With Tommy Hunter and Brian Matusz apparently banished to Norfolk for at least the foreseeable future, the Orioles have to remain committed to Jake Arrieta, who was good enough to be their Opening Day pitcher and has too much natural ability to be shunted aside, while also making decisions about others within the organization.

Chris Tillman's recent efforts at Norfolk would seem to offer enough hope for the Orioles to take an extended look at him. As soon as his minor league numbers match his physical readiness, Zach Britton will be ushered into the mix. Some other clubs, most notably the Toronto Blue Jays, have expressed interest in Tillman, and now would appear to be the time for the O's to make a decision about the right-hander, who is now 24.

Steve Johnson has also quietly made his way into the picture as either a starter or long reliever. The Orioles brought him up from Triple-A Norfolk this week, but sent him back after two days without giving him a chance to make his major league debut. With all the emphasis the Orioles have put on building a young pitching staff, and with phenom-in-waiting Dylan Bundy in the wings, now is the time to make some decisions -- while hoping a patchwork lineup can somehow be held together.

***

Most interesting statistic of the first half -- the Orioles had actually scored more unearned runs (38) during their first 80 games than they'd given up (36). Try to sell that one to Ripley.

Jim Henneman can be reached at JimH@pressboxonline.com.

Posted July 4, 2012




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Comments:
Since no one else commented, I guess JOHN's opening sentence was directed at me. Well, JOHN, the "Comments" I made were on subject.

The article mentions unearned runs; I say unearned runs (like most pitching centric stats) are flawed..

The article mentions mid-season grades; I offer two.

Your apology is accepted.
Posted by: Mr Bad Example @ 11:32 AM on 7.09.2012    [Add Your Comment]    [report abuse]

Thought the "Comments" were supposed to be about today's subject, Orioles 1st half (although it isn't here just yet-79 played when Jim wrote this). As in the past several years O's have just 2 reliable starting pitchers, Hamel and Chen. Matusz has had a 2011 year and Arrieta is a BIG question mark. Don't know if he is too nervous, unsure of his ability or just unprepared to be a Major League starter just yet. Not to bring up McPhail again (but I will) acquiring 2 veteran starters over the past 3 years might have allowed these two to learn pitching at the Minor League level. By this year it would have been clear whether they were ML pitchers or not.
Posted by: JOHN HAUPT @ 2:58 PM on 7.06.2012    [Add Your Comment]    [report abuse]

Give whatever grades you want to the players. It's always a mystery to me whether one downgrades someone for being mediocre or gives a mediocre player a high grade for living up to his potential.

But let's give two people their due.

#1 - Showalter. Sure, the O's are 7 games over .500 when at one time they were 13. But let's consider they ARE 7 games over while allowing 26 more runs than they've scored.

#2 - Duquette. Time will tell if team (and organization as a whole) will continue to improve, but Hammel and Chen alone are 7 games over .500. Given the bullpen and de-emphasizing Reynolds, all talk about MacPhail's delayed contributions should stop. Immediately.
Posted by: Mr Bad Example @ 3:15 PM on 7.05.2012    [Add Your Comment]    [report abuse]

Recently, much was made about the save being flawed. So, too, can the same argument be made about the unearned run.

Top of the 2nd on 6/23/12, WSH is facing Chen with runners on and 2 outs. Betemit takes a grounder in front of Hardy, twirls, and tosses a lame duck somewhere near 1st. The showboat play is ruled a hit and an error instead of a plain error as it should have been.

The runner on third becomes an earned run because of the hit. The runner on second scored on the error. Chen was charged with one earned run when it should have been zero.

Had Chen given up a HR, all 4 runs would have been earned instead of unearned since hit and error ruling erases the assumed 3rd out.
Posted by: Mr Bad Example @ 3:05 PM on 7.05.2012    [Add Your Comment]    [report abuse]

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